Market price trend analysis of industrial grade polyaluminum chloride

1、 Price trend characteristics

Overall downward trend

The average market price of industrial grade Polyaluminum Chloride in 2023 decreased from 2033.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 1777.50 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual decline of 12.6% and a maximum amplitude of 16.41% during the year. In 2024, there will continue to be a downward trend, with the main price of solid (content ≥ 28%) dropping to 1781.25 yuan/ton in May, a decrease of 0.70% from the beginning of the year. By April 2025, the ex factory price of industrial grade (30% spray) in Henan Province will be about 1660 yuan/ton, 18.4% lower than the peak in 2023.

Regional price differences

Henan Province, as the main production area (accounting for more than 50% of the national production caPacity), has significant price fluctuations:

In April 2025, the factory price of drum process products with 28% content will be 1300 yuan/ton, 30% spray process products will be 1660 yuan/ton, and food grade products (35%) will be 2700 yuan/ton;

There is a significant difference in the cost of different processes, for example, the price of liquid (with a content of 10%) is only 280-450 yuan/ton, and the plate and frame pressure filtration process is about 20% higher than the drum process.

2、 Core influencing factors

Cost-driven

Raw material hydrochloric acid: Hydrochloric acid fell 35.34% for the whole year of 2023, and the price rebounded in May 2024, supporting the cost of polyaluminum chloride;

Fuel cost: Fluctuations in liquefied natural gas prices directly affect production energy consumption. In May 2024, liquid gas prices first fell and then rose, leading to cost pressure differentiation.

Supply and demand pattern

Supply surplus: The annual production capacity in China exceeds 300000 tons, with concentrated production capacity in major production areas such as Gongyi in Henan. In 2024, there will be ample inventory, and the operating rate of enterprises will remain high;

Weak demand: Procurement in the industrial wasteWater Treatment sector is mainly driven by essential needs, while demand growth in industries such as printing and dyeing, and papermaking has not met expectations.

3、 Recent Market Trends (2024-2025)

Market performance in 2024

The main price for April was reported at 1793.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the beginning of the year. The cost of raw materials and fuel increased, but demand did not improve;

In June, the price dropped to 1758.33 yuan/ton, and the company attempted to increase added value through customized products (such as specialized formulas for fluorine-containing wastewater).

Price differentiation in 2025

The price of technology upgrading products (such as high-purity spray drying process) is firm, and the content of 30% spray grade is maintained at 1660-1680 yuan/ton;

Traditional craft products (such as 20% content rollers) are priced as low as 750 yuan/ton, intensifying market competition.

4、 Future trend prediction

Short term (second half of 2025)

The expected price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1650-1800 yuan/ton, with fluctuations in raw material costs and environmental policies (such as requirements for aluminum containing sludge resource utilization) being the main disruptive factors.

Medium to long term (after 2026)

Upward potential: If there are technological breakthroughs in renewable raw materials such as coal gangue and red mud, or if the proportion of functional products (such as heavy metal adsorption) increases, it may drive structural price increases;

Downward risk: The pattern of oversupply is difficult to change, and some companies may seize market share through low price competition.